Moral Hazard and The Banking Crisis Part II
It's been nearly 9 months since I've commented here. I've had alot I wanted to say but it seemed with every week there was a new bailout or borrowing facility for some connected institution. Just when I would think I had the pieces put together a new development would appear, usually on options expiration day.
We started bailing out financial institutions that were deemed "too big to fail" a little over a year ago from this writing with the now infamous takedown of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan. How cheap that 29 Billion guarantee to JP Morgan seems now. If only the insanity ended there.
Since then we've had multiple borrowing facilities created by the FED so banks and brokers can rid themselves of "toxic" assets. These assets are deemed toxic because noone will buy them for anywhere close to what the banks want to sell them for. Many categories of these "assets" don't even have any bids from investors. So, the banks and brokers trade these to the FED for Treasuries which they can sell for cash and then continue their trading activities and still meet payroll and other expenses without having to write off any of these "assets" as bad debt. Currently these holding are being called "legacy" assets because of the negative connotations that the word "toxic" created.
The financial landscape has been forever changed since last year as well. Lehman was allowed to go bankrupt. Interesting that Bear was so much smaller and less connected and saved but Lehman was thrown to the wolves. What about "too big to fail" and "systemic risk". Those have been the terms used to describe companies we need to save at any cost with no questions asked. So, why was Leh allowed to fail? The story put out at the time was that the government couldn't save everyone so they'd let Leh go and see what happened, hoping to restore confidence and send a message that any company could fail. But, now in hindsight it seems that the Leh bankruptcy was desired for two reasons. First was payback by the other connected players(GS, C, MS, BAC, and others) for Leh not playing ball during a previous crisis. The second was to obfuscate what was going on with AIG through all the confusion of Lehman unwinding it's books. And, maybe even to smooth the takeover of FRE and FNM which may have met more resistance without all the confusion.
Just after the Leh bankruptcy was when AIG had to be taken over. We were told it would be terrible beyond imagination if we let AIG fail. Worse than 1000 Leh bankruptcies. So, in September the government stepped in and gave AIG 85 Billion. We recently learned that the largest recepients of that money were GS, C, BAC, MS, and some foreign banks as they were counterparties to AIG's infamous CDS writing business. Some people think this payment by AIG is one of the things that facilitated the 20% crash in the markets over the next couple of weeks. I don't know if it did or not. What I do know is that since then these counterparties have received nearly 160 Billion of our money from AIG. If we rewind to September and remember how government and media were telling us AIG would crash the system if we didn't save it, then we can clearly see now who they were concerned about saving. Would these companies have went under without the AIG payments? It's doubtful since they're already so cozy with the FED. So why the urgent need to save AIG? And not only did AIG write these CDS contracts it knew it couldn't pay. It also wrote contracts to it's employees ensuring bonuses and retention pay for just showing up. AIG wrote tons of stupid contracts and the best way to rid the system of bad contracts is bankruptcy. Currently, Congress is trying to tax these employee bonuses at 90% and also shaming the executives into giving back "the taxpayer's money". Now I realize employees of a failed institution shouldn't get bonuses but those were some of the stupid contracts that AIG wrote. And it turns out those were the cheap ones. The employee bonuses were only 165 Million. The payments to counterparties so far has been 160 Billion. 1000X more!! What I don't understand is why some AIG contracts are deemed valid and others are judged invalid? Isn't saving the company that will crash the system if it fails about saving the contracts it has written? Bankruptcy would have gotten rid of the bad contracts but that was an unpalatable option as the counterparties would not have been able to collect. So we're supposed to believe that if AIG wouldn't have paid these connected counterparties 160 Billion then the system would have crashed.
That leads to my next question which is: Why has the FED lent these banks nearly 3 Trillion if the AIG money was all they needed? And if the AIG money wasn't all they needed then why did we save AIG? Just to pay off these banks, hopefully under the radar of the public and Congress? It's looking pretty ugly right about now if one starts adding up these statements.
Now let's try and add up the total bailouts to date and see what we can come up with. I'll start with Bloomberg who made this great chart at the end of February with the running totals:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZchK__XUF84
The table shows that so far the Government has committed 11.6 Trillion to Financial Institutions with 3.8 Trillion of it already spent. Now we have to add the 1.15 Trillion of new commitments that the FED just added at it's latest meeting in March. They are 750 Billion more for purchasing agency MBS, 100 Billion more for purchasing agency debt, and 300 Billion more for purchasing long-dated Treasuries. The Treasury has also announced a 500 Billion loan to the FDIC so it can buy banks' "legacy" assets. I told you the changes have been happening too fast to keep up with. Finally, as of today March 26th, we the people have promised financial institutions 13.25 Trillion and spend 4.0 Trillion.
The newest plan which inludes the recent 500 Billion for the FDIC is called the PPIP (public private investment plan). The plan is to have private investors and government team up to "invest" in these assets, taking them off the banks' hands.
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg65.htm
Unfortunately as you can see from the press release above the government portion is around 93% of the no recourse loan. It seems to me like just another AIG-type give away to the major banks. Especially when we hear of C and BAC and JPM buying up these securities like wildfire over the past few days and paying much more for them than they were trading for previously. Why else would they be buying these "assets" and overpaying unless they knew they'd be able to game the PPIP and sell them for much higher prices then. And if banks are so strapped for cash that they can't lend and credit markets are frozen, how do they have the money to buy these securities?
Also, where has the rest of the 4 Trillion already spent gone? We know where the 160 Billion from AIG went. How about the rest? The more obfuscation and lack of transparency we get about where this money is going leads many people to start thinking the government is in collusion with the major banks to loot the Treasury. What else are we supposed to think when faced with these facts? And we haven't even mentioned FNM and FRE yet or how their executives have no problem keeping their bonuses with no congressional or public outcry. And we haven't mentioned how the protests at AIG were organized by Acorn and the Service Workers Union. We also haven't mentioned how this whole thing is being run by a proven tax cheat, Geithner.
What I will close with though is the latest outrage by the banks that they want to pay back the TARP funds by this spring to escape from the executive compensation limits and other restrictions placed on them by the government. Wait a minute. I thought we had to pull out all the stops for these banks or it would be utter destruction for us. How could they have the money to pay back the TARP funds if we've promised them 13.25 Trillion? Undoubtedly if they're allowed to pay back the TARP money it will be our money they're paying back to us. Otherwise, why do they need the 13 Trillion promise fom us? Also, C and BAC said they having the most profitable quarter in a long time. Well how is that possible when they're mainly holding our money and not theirs? If they are having such a profitable quarter and are ready to pay back the TARP money then why can't we pull our 13 Trillion commitment to them and have the FED start making them give back the treasuries they borrowed? It almost seems like the banks will never stop asking for money until we stop giving it.
I'll keep you up to speed on developments as i plan to write more frequently. My goal is once a week at a minimum.
Rob.
We started bailing out financial institutions that were deemed "too big to fail" a little over a year ago from this writing with the now infamous takedown of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan. How cheap that 29 Billion guarantee to JP Morgan seems now. If only the insanity ended there.
Since then we've had multiple borrowing facilities created by the FED so banks and brokers can rid themselves of "toxic" assets. These assets are deemed toxic because noone will buy them for anywhere close to what the banks want to sell them for. Many categories of these "assets" don't even have any bids from investors. So, the banks and brokers trade these to the FED for Treasuries which they can sell for cash and then continue their trading activities and still meet payroll and other expenses without having to write off any of these "assets" as bad debt. Currently these holding are being called "legacy" assets because of the negative connotations that the word "toxic" created.
The financial landscape has been forever changed since last year as well. Lehman was allowed to go bankrupt. Interesting that Bear was so much smaller and less connected and saved but Lehman was thrown to the wolves. What about "too big to fail" and "systemic risk". Those have been the terms used to describe companies we need to save at any cost with no questions asked. So, why was Leh allowed to fail? The story put out at the time was that the government couldn't save everyone so they'd let Leh go and see what happened, hoping to restore confidence and send a message that any company could fail. But, now in hindsight it seems that the Leh bankruptcy was desired for two reasons. First was payback by the other connected players(GS, C, MS, BAC, and others) for Leh not playing ball during a previous crisis. The second was to obfuscate what was going on with AIG through all the confusion of Lehman unwinding it's books. And, maybe even to smooth the takeover of FRE and FNM which may have met more resistance without all the confusion.
Just after the Leh bankruptcy was when AIG had to be taken over. We were told it would be terrible beyond imagination if we let AIG fail. Worse than 1000 Leh bankruptcies. So, in September the government stepped in and gave AIG 85 Billion. We recently learned that the largest recepients of that money were GS, C, BAC, MS, and some foreign banks as they were counterparties to AIG's infamous CDS writing business. Some people think this payment by AIG is one of the things that facilitated the 20% crash in the markets over the next couple of weeks. I don't know if it did or not. What I do know is that since then these counterparties have received nearly 160 Billion of our money from AIG. If we rewind to September and remember how government and media were telling us AIG would crash the system if we didn't save it, then we can clearly see now who they were concerned about saving. Would these companies have went under without the AIG payments? It's doubtful since they're already so cozy with the FED. So why the urgent need to save AIG? And not only did AIG write these CDS contracts it knew it couldn't pay. It also wrote contracts to it's employees ensuring bonuses and retention pay for just showing up. AIG wrote tons of stupid contracts and the best way to rid the system of bad contracts is bankruptcy. Currently, Congress is trying to tax these employee bonuses at 90% and also shaming the executives into giving back "the taxpayer's money". Now I realize employees of a failed institution shouldn't get bonuses but those were some of the stupid contracts that AIG wrote. And it turns out those were the cheap ones. The employee bonuses were only 165 Million. The payments to counterparties so far has been 160 Billion. 1000X more!! What I don't understand is why some AIG contracts are deemed valid and others are judged invalid? Isn't saving the company that will crash the system if it fails about saving the contracts it has written? Bankruptcy would have gotten rid of the bad contracts but that was an unpalatable option as the counterparties would not have been able to collect. So we're supposed to believe that if AIG wouldn't have paid these connected counterparties 160 Billion then the system would have crashed.
That leads to my next question which is: Why has the FED lent these banks nearly 3 Trillion if the AIG money was all they needed? And if the AIG money wasn't all they needed then why did we save AIG? Just to pay off these banks, hopefully under the radar of the public and Congress? It's looking pretty ugly right about now if one starts adding up these statements.
Now let's try and add up the total bailouts to date and see what we can come up with. I'll start with Bloomberg who made this great chart at the end of February with the running totals:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZchK__XUF84
The table shows that so far the Government has committed 11.6 Trillion to Financial Institutions with 3.8 Trillion of it already spent. Now we have to add the 1.15 Trillion of new commitments that the FED just added at it's latest meeting in March. They are 750 Billion more for purchasing agency MBS, 100 Billion more for purchasing agency debt, and 300 Billion more for purchasing long-dated Treasuries. The Treasury has also announced a 500 Billion loan to the FDIC so it can buy banks' "legacy" assets. I told you the changes have been happening too fast to keep up with. Finally, as of today March 26th, we the people have promised financial institutions 13.25 Trillion and spend 4.0 Trillion.
The newest plan which inludes the recent 500 Billion for the FDIC is called the PPIP (public private investment plan). The plan is to have private investors and government team up to "invest" in these assets, taking them off the banks' hands.
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg65.htm
Unfortunately as you can see from the press release above the government portion is around 93% of the no recourse loan. It seems to me like just another AIG-type give away to the major banks. Especially when we hear of C and BAC and JPM buying up these securities like wildfire over the past few days and paying much more for them than they were trading for previously. Why else would they be buying these "assets" and overpaying unless they knew they'd be able to game the PPIP and sell them for much higher prices then. And if banks are so strapped for cash that they can't lend and credit markets are frozen, how do they have the money to buy these securities?
Also, where has the rest of the 4 Trillion already spent gone? We know where the 160 Billion from AIG went. How about the rest? The more obfuscation and lack of transparency we get about where this money is going leads many people to start thinking the government is in collusion with the major banks to loot the Treasury. What else are we supposed to think when faced with these facts? And we haven't even mentioned FNM and FRE yet or how their executives have no problem keeping their bonuses with no congressional or public outcry. And we haven't mentioned how the protests at AIG were organized by Acorn and the Service Workers Union. We also haven't mentioned how this whole thing is being run by a proven tax cheat, Geithner.
What I will close with though is the latest outrage by the banks that they want to pay back the TARP funds by this spring to escape from the executive compensation limits and other restrictions placed on them by the government. Wait a minute. I thought we had to pull out all the stops for these banks or it would be utter destruction for us. How could they have the money to pay back the TARP funds if we've promised them 13.25 Trillion? Undoubtedly if they're allowed to pay back the TARP money it will be our money they're paying back to us. Otherwise, why do they need the 13 Trillion promise fom us? Also, C and BAC said they having the most profitable quarter in a long time. Well how is that possible when they're mainly holding our money and not theirs? If they are having such a profitable quarter and are ready to pay back the TARP money then why can't we pull our 13 Trillion commitment to them and have the FED start making them give back the treasuries they borrowed? It almost seems like the banks will never stop asking for money until we stop giving it.
I'll keep you up to speed on developments as i plan to write more frequently. My goal is once a week at a minimum.
Rob.
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is one of Chinese martial arts, boxing, too known for pass via the back arm boxing, the accent on the back alternatively Yuanbi ape catching latent, it namely likewise known for Tong Bei Quan spread wider, more schools, in appending apt Medley through the arm, Circulated earlier in Shanxi Means there fell, shot, wearing, splitting, drilling, step-step with the line, hike, chain-step, etc., there are leg nail, kick, hoof, bombs. Routine campaign requires refusal bladder Douwan, threw his arms hack, elbow and arm hanging stitch, buffet the light, flash development and amenable, the tangible location is remove, back force, the cold playing fragile, tough staggered.
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About the formation and development style characterized by the action moves the main schools of History main action necessaries training methods representativesTong Bei Quan
About Tong Bei Quan is one of Chinese martial arts , also known as pass through the back arm boxing boxing, the emphasis on the back or Yuanbi ape taking potential, it is also known as Tong Bei Quan spread wider, more schools, in addition to Medley through the arm, Circulated earlier in Shanxi Means there fell, shot, wearing, splitting, drilling, step-step with the line, walk, chain-step, etc., there are leg hook, kick, hoof, bombs. Routine movement requires rejection bladder Douwan, threw his arms hack, shoulder and arm hanging stitch, strike the light, flash development and flexible, the actual situation is clear, back force, the cold playing crisp, tough staggered. Tong Bei Quan style features, also known as pass-arm, through the back, is a more antique boxing. Qing xi dad and son are well-known scholar writing. Yellow one hundred, said: Tong Bei Quan has amplified into a digit of schools in the country, contests.Tong Bei Quan
Tong Bei Quan was more prevalent in the popular eastern Hebei. Cangzhou a pass with a gold hinge back, Qinghe River is a large five elements through the back, Beijing, Nanjing East is a five monkeys, White Ape Tong Bei. Nearly to know the five elements, five monkeys, White Ape Tong Bei is indeed a genre, with different names but similar content, Cangzhou back for a tour through the monk have left, the five elements or five monkeys through the back of the Qing Dynasty, Shandong Qi goes through his son preach five monkeys fist back as both types, there are pictographic boxing feature. Five monkeys Tong Bei Quan style is portrayed by: large chop big twist, with a long strike far, pert profile, fierce pragmatic, fluent, generous stretch, but both inside and outside, hardness and softness. Tong Bei Quanaction moves
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Roman numerals in Europe in Arabic numerals (really Indian) in use before the introduction of a digital, now seldom used. It was nativity later than the Oracle of China Digital, after in the Egyptian decimal digits. However, it produces marked one ancient culture.
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historical evolution of the elementary notions of counting the number of rules as the control team methods for example special summarize synopsis of the absolute number on 1. Overview two absolute above 3 fundamental notions [pronunciation] Roman numerals (luómǎshùzì) Rome Digital is the 1st digital representation, 2,000 annuals earlier than Arabic numerals. Originated in Rome. Now we are the maximum common is the Roman digit clock turntable symbol: Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ, Ⅴ, Ⅵ, Ⅶ, Ⅷ, Ⅸ, Ⅹ, Ⅺ, Ⅻ. Corresponding Arabic numerals (which is now internationally adopted figure), is 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,Steam mixed with noodles,12. Arabic is the invention of the ancient Indians, and later brought to Europe along the Arab, the Europeans mistakenly cried Arabic numerals. Historical development approximately 2500 annuals antecedent, the Romans are still in the early stages of cultural development, while they used a finger table forRoman numerals
as a enumeration tool. In order to express one, two, three, 4 objects, they were out of one, two, three or four fingers; namely five out of the object aboard the one hand; that ten out of two hands on the thing. This accustomed of mankind has been in use to this daytime. People in conversation, constantly use this gesture to represent numbers. At namely period, the Romans in order to record these numbers, they draw on the sheepskin Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ instead of the number of fingers; to that hand, you write ; mentioned the two hands, it drew Later, in order to express a large number of Romans used the symbol C represents a hundred. C is the Latin word With the symbol M represents a thousand. M is the Latin word Take half of the letter C, for the symbol L, said fifty. With the letter D is five hundred. If the number of the altitude paint a curtate line, this number ambition expand a thousand times. Thus, Roman numerals have the following seven basic symbols: Ⅰ (1), Ⅴ (5), Ⅹ (10), L (50), C (100), D (500), M (1000). Roman numerals and the decimal number is differ in averaging, it did no signify the number naught, nothing to do with the decimal system. Troublesome due to jot Roman numerals, so future generations rarely used. Now, some still use it to see the surface of said hours. In counting, the writing chapters and technological assortment is likewise in Roman figures. Publications in Chinese, Roman numerals used in some code, such as product type and so on. ASC Ⅱ code embodied with the microcomputer fit of the Roman numerals 1 to 12. Counting method is basically the character: I, V, X, L, C, D,Reply to this
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